Australian Open Preview

The First Grand Slam of the year has arrived!

It’s always difficult to break down and predict the Australian Open when players haven’t played in a warm event prior. Those include Jannik Sinner, Carlos Alcaraz, Daniil Medvedev, Casper Ruud, and Jack Draper. But it’s not like those players have just been resting and training, they have played in exhibition events or matches. 

First, I think it’s important to address the difficulty to win as an underdog due to the format. With a best of 5 sets format, a higher ranked player will typically have the edge because of the time they come back if they do lose a set. To put it more simply, it’s more difficult for a lower ranked player to play at a high level for a longer period of time. They may have a patch of brilliance, but it is difficult to maintain that level across a full match. 

In this article I want to preview:

1.  The top seeds and their potential Round of 16/Quarter-final matches.
2.  Highlight a few potential dark horse runs to be made from lower seed or unseeded players. 
3. Round 1 matches that I think will be fun!

To begin, I want to analyze the courts in Melbourne. The Australian Open courts are classified as medium-fast hard courts. They are a bit faster than the US Open courts. Melbourne used Plexicushion until 2020, when they switched to Greenset Worldwide, a multi-layered acrylic resin surface. This creates a court classified as ‘medium-fast’ with a low bounce. Hot weather and new balls create faster, bouncier playing conditions. In contrast, cooler evening temperatures result in slower conditions with reduced bounce, while older balls, which tend to fluff up, generate more drag and further slow down the game. The Dunlop balls used in Melbourne are harder to generate spin with and lose pressure after a few games, resulting in lower bounces that complement flat-hitting ball strikers.

Top players overview:

This is Sinner’s tournament to lose. While I don’t want to dive deep into the allegations, he is the best player in the field, just ahead of Carlos Alcaraz. The thought of this being his only major of the year might make him even more motivated to defend his title in Australia. Sinner is in the top half of the draw, which features much less competition compared to the bottom half. He faces Nico Jarry in round 1, who is a big server and heavy ball striker. You’re not going to hit through Sinner unfortunately, so Jarry may find some early success with his serve, but over time I expect his level to drop. As the match carries on I think we will see Jarry going for broke and looking to play quicker points, leading to more erratic shots. I think Jarry is Sinner’s toughest opponent until he reaches the quarter final. 

Carlos Alcaraz is looking to become the youngest player in history to complete the Career Grand Slam. I do believe that Carlos feels that pressure as he hasn’t found success in Australia in his short ATP career. It feels like this is a perfect opportunity for Carlos to make a run as he had his time to rest, recover, and train on a similar surface for the past month. Alcaraz’s clay-based upbringing has shaped his game around heavy topspin and longer rallies, which are more suited to slower courts. On faster surfaces, where players need quicker reactions and flatter shots, this style can be a disadvantage. He doesn’t handle the quicker surfaces as well because he often feels rushed, leading to decision-making errors, and difficulty generating free points with his serve. I’m hoping that by the time we get to the Quarter Finals, Carlos will have adjusted to the surface and conditions. Alcaraz will likely see many solid baseline opponents. Unfortunate for them, as he will just crush you from the baseline. Draper vs Alcaraz might present some fun, but Draper would have to play the match of his life. All in all, I don’t see any true competition until the quarterfinals where he will likely face Djokovic or Tomas Mahac. 

Sascha Zverev has been one of the most consistent players over the past two seasons finding himself deep into Majors, but hasn’t been able to cross the hump. That’s primarily due to Carlos who beat him in the French Open final and Taylor Fritz, who beat him at Wimbledon and the US Open. He should walk to the round of 16 where he is likely to face a Frenchman, either Humbert or Fils. Even in that match, I don’t see much trouble for the German. It would be great to get another Popcorn Semi Final between Fritz and Zverev.

Fritzy! He’s played the best tennis of his life over the past year. He finally got over the QF hump at the US open, where he made it to the final eventually losing to Sinner in straight sets. I think this surface is awesome for Fritz and believe he will go deep in Australia. I think Fritz should walk to the Quarter Final where he would likely meet Rublev or Medvedev. Fritz got the better of Medvedev in Turin at the ATP finals in November. I was extremely impressed with his rally tolerance and footwork, aspects of his game he’s been improving since last January. I have high hopes for Fritzy in Australia and I see him making the Semis. 

For Djokovic, he is back in Australia looking for an 11th title. What a freaking stat, just incredible. This time it will be different, as Andy Murray will make his debut in the Joker box. So excited to see how they speak to each other, both known for yelling at their box and expecting to hear it back. Reilly Opelka defeated Djokovic two weeks ago in Brisbane but I don’t make much of the result. Opelka, standing at nearly seven feet tall, has the ability to overpower opponents and take control of the game via the serve and forehand. Joker gets Nishesh Basavareddy in round one. Basavareddy just came on the scene recently as he chewed up the challenger tour last season. He has said multiple times how much he idolizes Novak and even models his game around him. I wont hide it, I’m a big fan of Basavareddy and his game. Last week he lost in the semi-final at ATP Auckland to Gael Monfils, where I think he actually should have come out victorious. I genuinely think he should’ve left New Zealand with a title as Gael played the big points so well, but he still would’ve had to go through Zizou Bergs in the final (I think Basavareddy would’ve beat Bergs)! Assuming things go to plan, Djokovic will likely face the pest in Tomas Mahac in the Round of 16. The H2H is 1-1 with Mahac coming out victorious most recently in Geneva (6-4 0-6 6-1). Djokovic hasn’t played a lot of tennis since the US open, so it’s difficult to predict how he will look. How healthy is he?

The last top player I want to address is Daniil Medvedev. He just welcomed his second child this past week. He was dealing with all sorts of injuries toward the end of season, specifically the shoulder, and hasn’t played a warm-up event. On top of that, he arrived in Australia late. Meddy is a “hard court specialist” as he refers to himself, so I will never count him out. He will be on that court until his legs fall off, which they did in last year’s Australian Open final vs Jannik Sinner. He led Sinner by 2 sets to love, but was just too tired from playing so many 5 setters in previous rounds. There are a lot of question marks surrounding his game at the moment, but I won’t be surprised to see him play more freely in the early going.  

Dark Horse run: 

Brandon Nakashima. He has had quite a whirlwind of a year, as he dropped outside the top 100 a year ago, but has found himself back at world #37. For any player, he’s a nightmare to play. His serve has improved so much that he holds at a better rate, putting scoreboard pressure on his opponent. On top of that, he plays a wall oriented baseline game, deflecting power to the opposite wings and following that to the net. His consistency is what allows him to have success. The only tough part for him has been his mental game. I see him overcoming that here and playing Shelton extremely tight in round 1, winning in a close 4 or 5 set battle. That hurts for me to say as I have such high hopes for Ben Shelton. I think he can grind down Shelton, forcing him to overhit into errors. I think he can carry that success to the QF where he would likely match up with Taylor Fritz. 

Lukas Klein. While he’s unknown to many, you would know more about him if he was able to capitalize a year ago where he led Sascha Zverev by 2 sets to love in Round 1 of the Australian Open. Klein is a pure ball striker. He plays extremely aggressive, hitting heavy to corners and rushing the net. He plays Seb Korda in R1 who just came off a loss in the Adelaide Final, losing to Felix Auger-Aliassime. Before this past week, Korda hadn’t played since the US open so his fitness is in question. While Korda doesn’t like to be rushed, he is a brilliant passer, but I think Klein will live with that. Klein will play his game and go for the win as opposed to waiting on Korda errors. If he gets through, I think he could get by Vukic and potentially Jack Draper depending on his fitness (nagging Hip injury). Good luck, Lukas Klein! 

Juncheng Shang, also known as Jerry! I am so high on Jerry Shang. Still just 19 years old, Jerry has been training at IMG in Florida for years now. He’s a lefty from China, who has seen a bunch of success in his short ATP career. He won his first ATP Title in Chengdu in a run where he defeated Bublik, Siafullin and Musetti in the final. His game has continued to develop where he uses both his spinny forehand and flat forehand as weapons to finish points. He relies on his consistency to fluster opponents and then drops in his flair when needed. An impressive shotmaker who I have high hopes for. If Shang can get through Fokina, he will play a hot FAA. Yes that may be tough, but Jerry enjoys these conditions. Everything, including his fitness is on the rise and I see him surprising, especially because he’s a lefty. If he manages to get through FAA that would get him to the Round of 16 where he would likely face Casper Ruud. He played Ruud at the US Open and led 2 sets to love before his level and fitness dropped considerably. Good luck, Jerry!

Round 1 matches that should produce!

The most exciting R1 match for me is between Nick Kyrgios and Jacob Fearnley. Krygios took over a year off from the tour recovering from numerous injuries, but particularly his wrist injury. He is now back! He played a warm up event in Brisbane where he truly impressed me in his one match (loss) against the big serving Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard. He looked quite solid from the baseline and had the serve plus one working well. He should have a huge crowd supporting him in round 1. Now let’s get into Jacob Fearnley. Fearnley hails from Great Britain, but spent his college years at TCU. He came on the scene this summer crushing the challenger tour and quickly became one of my favorite players. He has a huge serve and plays the plus 1 at an awesome rate. The forehand is his primary weapon, but in order to come through he’s going to have to play the backhand more often than he prefers. He plays extremely aggressively and is happy to come to the net to finish points. I think his serving should carry him to some breakers and his net play will be the final factor. I think he beats Nick in 4 or 5! 

The First round match that has the most hype surrounding it is Andrey Rublev vs Joao Fonseca. Let’s start with Fonseca. I wrote a bit about him ahead of the Next Gen ATP Finals stating “Probably the most exciting player among the eight. This kid is so fun, so special. In his debut to the ATP tour he performed in front of a wild crowd in Rio, Brazil, making it to the third round after defeating Arthur Fils and Crisitan Garin. That was truly the first time I had a chance to watch him play and I was glued. To me, arguably the most fun forehand in men’s tennis and I’m not even joking (meanwhile the kid is 18 years old). Eye popping numbers from that side and his serve is slowly developing as well.” Fonseca is on an 11 match winning streak dating back to The Next Gen ATP finals (went 5-0). He didn’t come close to dropping a set this past week as walked through 3 Australian Open qualifying matches. Now he gets his first top 10 opponent in Andrey Rublev as well as his first best of 5 set match. Rublev had a poor 2024 season which was highlighted by negative outbursts on court as well as multiple bad losses to lower ranked players. Rublev is a player who spreads the wings from the baseline, but is tentative to come to the net, so the baseline battle will be exciting! It will be interesting to see how Fonseca performs in his first big match of his career as he is poised to be the next up and coming tennis star. Both players will be dealing with a lot of pressure, it should be a fun watch! Can Fonseca hit through Rublev or will his powerful baseline game be too much to deal with?

The match between Lorenzo Musetti and Matteo Arnaldi will be captivating due to their contrasting playing styles and complementary strengths. Musetti is known for his artistic shot-making and elegance, with a one-handed backhand widely regarded as one of the most beautiful in the sport. His ability to mix slices, drop shots, and angles showcases his variety, making him especially effective on clay courts, though he has also demonstrated adaptability on other surfaces. On the other side, Arnaldi brings a more aggressive baseline approach. His game is defined around solid groundstrokes, high intensity, and relentless work ethic. Tactically, Musetti would likely seek to disrupt Arnaldi’s rhythm with creativity and variation, using his wide arsenal of spins and paces to force Arnaldi into uncomfortable positions. Both Musetti and Arnaldi represent the rising stars of Italian tennis, part of a new wave that showcases the country’s depth in the sport. Musetti has already reached a career-high ranking in the Top 20, establishing himself as a notable player on the ATP tour, while Arnaldi is quickly climbing the ranks after his breakout performances in 2023. This battle should lead to some exciting rallies and be sure to capture the attention of fans back home!

Another match I want to highlight is between Hubert Hurkacz and Tallon Griekspoor. Both big servers, I see this going 4 or 5. Hubert Hurkacz has come into 2025 with a new coach, new apparel and a new racket. I’m excited to see Hubi continue to develop as a player under Nicolas Massu. It should come down to some tight points in deuce battles or tiebreaks! For me, Hubi has extremely improved his baseline game. He used to be classified as a serve bot, but now I see him rallying with some of the best in the game. Both players in this match have aggressive play styles who are comfortable finishing points at the net. Dutchman Tallon Griekspoor did withdraw from Hong Kong and Adelaide, the two tournaments leading up to the Australian Open, so his health is in question. I think Griekspoor has an edge from the baseline, but will the scoreboard pressure be too much? This should be fun! 

The final match I want to highlight is between Alex Micheslen and Stefanos Tsitsipas. While Stef is the 11 seed, his tennis over the past year has not been showing of that rank outside of an impressive two week stretch on the clay (Barcelona/Monte Carlo). The one handed backhand has been the main issue for Stef as of late. He has a great serve plus one, using the forehand to dictate out of the backhand wing, but he prefers a high bouncing ball. These courts won’t give you that especially once the balls go through a few games of play. A year ago there was a lot of doubt in my mind about Michelsen as an ATP tour regular, yet here we are a year later as he sits inside the top 50. This kid works as hard as anyone on the tour and brings a huge presence to each match he plays. Where I doubted him the most was his mobility. He stands at 6 feet 4 inches and has a heavier base than most, but has continued to work at it and the progress has been evident. His baseline game has been amazing and I struggle to pick which wing he prefers to work out of. On top of that, his hands are so sneaky! I think it’s his most underrated asset that will continue to bring him more cheap points. I think the Michelsen backhand up the line will cause the most trouble for Stef as he likes to camp in his backhand wing, looking to play aggressive forehands. I have Michelsen winning this one!

Semi final predictions: 

Sinner vs Fritz

Alcaraz vs Zverev

Finals:

Sinner vs Alcaraz

Winner…..

Vamos!

I hope you guys enjoy the tournament. Please reach out with any thoughts or questions! 

Until next time…

Simon