The 8 WTA players with the best shot at the Wimbledon title.
- Elena Rybakina
- Aryna Sabalenka
- Jess Pegula
- Madison Keys
- Mirra Andreeva
- Markéta Vondroušová
- Coco Gauff
- Iga Swiatek
- Rybakina takes the top spot for me because of her track record at Wimbledon and her recent form. She lost a tough match to Swiatek at Roland Garros, but most recently delivered a great performance against Sabalenka where she lost from 6-2 up in the deciding tiebreak. Her big serving and flat hitting should take her deep this year as she’s the best grass court player in her quarter. Having won this title in 2022 she has to be confident in her ability while using her experience to her advantage.
- Sabalenka has reached the final of every major dating back to the 2024 US Open (3), but only winning one of those. She’s the favorite at Wimbledon, but the going gets tough early this year. Branstine showed off her talent on grass in recent weeks taking down Samsonova and coming through a tough qualifying draw. In round 2, she’s almost guaranteed to face a player who’s comfortable on this surface, and potentially former Wimbledon champion, Marketa Vondrousova (won Berlin 500 title two weeks ago). Elina Svitolina is in her section, while Keys and Vekic are in her quarter. She has never won a title on grass and hasn’t made it to the final at Wimbledon, but is for sure the number 1 player across surfaces. Let’s see if Sabalenka can make the breakthrough at Wimbledon.
- Pegula is next on the list and I think it’s for good measure. After an awesome week and taking home the Bad Homburg title, she should be filled with confidence. That should continue to grow through the early rounds where I think she could find her first true challenge in the Round of 16 (names like Alexandrova, Wang, Muchova). Has such a great game for the grass with heavy and flat strokes from the ground.
- The 4th spot goes to Madison Keys. This was a close call for me as I think she easily could be third in my power rankings as well. She has the game to wreak havoc on grass and her draw isn’t very threatening until a potential matchup with Vekic in the round of 16. Probably the easiest path to the Quarterfinal right next to Gauff. Having gotten over the hump in Australia this year, there should be some comfort if the going gets tough. Could get a rematch with Sabalenka in the Quarterfinal.
- Mirra Andreeva takes the next spot based on her draw. It hasn’t been easy going for her as of late but she’s played in big matches this season. They haven’t always gone her way but I’m hoping she can use these experiences, both positive and negative, to help her in the future. Andreeva didn’t gain much confidence in the leadup events, losing early in Berlin and Bad Homburg. Another painful matchup for her this season has been Coco Gauff, but she wouldn’t have to deal with that until the semifinal. Easy early round matchups could help her catch steam, and with her variety, serving ability, and ball striking, she has a shot against anyone.
- Markéta Vondroušová earns the 6th spot having won the title here in 2023 and winning Berlin just a week ago taking down Sabalenka, Keys, Jabeur, Shnaider and Wang. While it hasn’t been her best year in terms of tennis or fitness, Markéta Vondroušová automatically becomes a threat once grass season arrives. Her variety, mixing in slices and constructing points with precision, makes her a tough out on this surface. She opens against Kessler, a tricky opponent in Round 1, and that’s where her current ranking works against her. But after pulling off an incredible run last week in Berlin, why not believe she can do it again?
- Next up for me is Coco Gauff. While I wanted to put Iga over Gauff, with that draw I couldn’t. There still could be some trouble with Samsonova, Kasatkina and Joint looming, but I think that path is easier than having to play Rybakina in the Round of 16. I still think Coco has a long way to go on this surface, but should have enough in her locker to ease through a few rounds. The serving ability sticks out on this surface, but the forehand exchanges are where I worry for her.
- Iga is next on my list and while it feels low for her, I think it’s realistic. She hasn’t won a title in over a year and she’s on her least preferred surface. On the flip side, Swiatek comes into the tournament with zero expectations, which is a huge contrast to how she felt all clay season. It seems like the weight off her shoulders helped her get to the final in Bad Homburg, so let’s see if she can keep it up. We could get another Danielle Collins vs Swiatek matchup!
