The BNP Paribas Open final ultimately came down to just a few decisive points. The World No. 2, Rybakina held match point, but Sabalenka dug in, winning a backhand exchange to level the third-set tiebreak at 6–6. Moments later, after a missed backhand from Elena Rybakina, Aryna Sabalenka fired down one last unreturnable serve to seal a dramatic 3–6, 6–3, 7–6(6) victory after more than two and a half hours.
Their rivalry in finals has been anything but one-sided. Three years ago, Rybakina defeated Sabalenka for the title in Indian Wells, and last year it was Mirra Andreeva who stunned the field (taking down Sabalenka in the final). Despite holding the No. 1 ranking for 81 straight weeks, Sabalenka had endured a string of tough losses in championship matches.
Madison Keys beat her in Melbourne, Andreeva followed soon after, Jelena Ostapenko took the title in Stuttgart, and Coco Gauff got the better of her at Roland Garros. Rybakina also came out on top in both the WTA Finals and this year’s Australian Open, giving her a 4–1 edge over Sabalenka in previous finals.
That Australian Open loss remains Sabalenka’s only defeat across her first 18 matches this season. Her win here also snapped Rybakina’s 12-match winning streak against Top 10 opponents.
Fittingly, the match ended the same way Sabalenka had dominated all week, behind her serve. She blasted 10 aces, hit just three double faults, and won 40 of 60 first-serve points along with an impressive 27 of 48 on second serve. Entering the final, she had held serve in 46 of 48 games, and while Rybakina managed three breaks, Sabalenka still posted a remarkable 58-for-63 (.921) hold rate for the tournament.
This marked the first time since the event began in 1989 that the World No. 1 lost the opening set of the Indian Wells final and still came back to win. It also secured Sabalenka’s 10th WTA 1000 title, making her just the fourth player to reach double digits, joining Serena Williams (13), Iga Świątek (11), and Victoria Azarenka (10).
Sabalenka talked about her mindset in those moments…
“It was super hot,” Sabalenka said. “I was dying there in the tiebreak, but I also saw that she was also not feeling her best. So I was trying to push myself basically to the limit. “I’m super happy that in those last three points of the match, I was able to pull out really great tennis and get the win. That backhand [on match point down] that I hit was definitely something incredible and something I’ll be re-watching and reminding myself in other matches that I can hit like that — and I have to go after these shots.”
Where it ranks among the best women’s matches in recent years is still up for debate, but from 5–3 to the final ball, it delivered pure drama.
